Recently, the European Commission announced that it has decided to impose a final countervailing duty of 35.3% on electric vehicles imported from China for a period of five years. Faced with an increasingly complex international environment and increasingly severe trade barriers, the globalization process of China's new energy vehicles urgently needs to clarify the direction and strengthen the faith.
On November 1, the 2024 Global New Energy Vehicle Cooperation and Development (Shanghai) Forum hosted by the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association was held in due time. The theme of this forum is "Promoting Global Cooperation and Sustainable Development of New Energy Vehicles", aiming to deepen pragmatic cooperation, explore new strategies for building a global new energy vehicle cooperation ecosystem, and discuss new paths for the coordinated development of the global new energy vehicle supply chain.
China's new energy vehicles have made remarkable achievements
After years of development, new energy vehicles have already "waited for the clouds to clear and the moon to shine" on a global scale. In the view of Wang Qing, deputy director of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, the current Chinese new energy vehicle market maintains a good development trend in China and has won initial recognition from other countries, companies and consumers around the world. Judging from the monthly sales, my country's new energy vehicles have accounted for more than 50% of the market share for three consecutive months, and even reached about 55% in September, with relatively rapid development.
Zhao Yang, vice president of the Automobile Industry Branch of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, also pointed out that through the policy guidance and technological progress in the past few years, my country's new energy vehicles have made significant progress and have a number of internationally competitive enterprises. First, the scale of the new energy vehicle industry has grown rapidly, becoming a key force in promoting the development of my country's automobile industry. Second, a complete new energy vehicle industry chain has been formed from upstream raw materials to downstream vehicle manufacturing, and it has a dominant position in each link and has strong competitiveness. Third, the technological innovation results of new energy vehicles are remarkable, and many achievements have been made in the fields of power batteries and charging piles. Fourth, the policy support is comprehensive, with both industrial policy guidance and a number of policies to encourage consumers to buy new energy vehicles, further promoting the growth of the new energy vehicle market.
According to Sun Xiaohong, secretary-general of the Automobile Internationalization Professional Committee of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products, according to international customs data, from January to June this year, in terms of cargo value, China's vehicle export scale ranked third in the world, after Germany and Japan. However, Sun Xiaohong said: "The gap between China and Japan is less than 2% at present. Due to the high growth rate of China's automobile exports, China is expected to surpass Japan this year and rank second." In his opinion, China's automobile exports are expected to achieve the goal of 6 million vehicles in 2024.
Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of the China Electric Vehicle 100 Association, said that the current global new energy vehicle development mainly presents five major trends: China and emerging markets are the regions with the fastest momentum of electrification; the momentum of electrification in the European and American markets has slowed down in stages; the global electrification industry layout and technological innovation direction are clearer; traditional large automakers are still in the profit stage, but profits are shrinking at an accelerated rate; the profitability of cutting-edge new energy automakers has steadily increased and is crossing the profit inflection point; auto consumers are gradually accepting electrification, and the demand for intelligence will increase significantly.
"Hard power" is more than "soft power"
"China has become the world's largest new energy vehicle market, but whether it can be called the 'world's strongest' needs to be considered from two aspects." Liu Meng, General Representative of the United Nations Global Compact in Asia Pacific, said that the development of new energy vehicles should not only look at "hard power" such as technology, cost, design, and supporting facilities, but also "soft power" such as mineral resources, circular economy, and values. In the past few decades, China's automobile industry has won the market by relying on hard power. In the future, it will win the respect and love of global consumers through soft power.
In terms of mineral resources, Wang Qing said that in the context of further accelerating the development of new energy vehicles around the world, the pressure on the supply and demand pattern of major metals in my country will continue to increase in the future. In 2022, the total global basic metal consumption will reach 161 million tons, and China will be 92.93 million tons, accounting for 58%. While the demand for resources is large, most of my country's metal minerals cannot be self-sufficient. The resource demand of some major metal varieties is more than half dependent on foreign countries, and the foreign dependence of metals such as nickel, manganese, chromium, and copper is as high as 70%. In his view, this supply pattern poses great challenges to the development of my country's strategic emerging industries, especially the new energy vehicle industry. "The pressure of carbon reduction, the increase in global supply and demand pressure, the rapid growth of demand, the security of the industrial chain and supply chain, and trade barriers require my country to take resource recycling and strengthening global cooperation as an important strategic direction in the next step." Wang Qing emphasized.
In the development of the circular economy, China Resources Recycling Group Co., Ltd. was officially established a few days ago, which will cover the business of waste batteries for new energy vehicles and electric bicycles, waste non-ferrous metal recycling and other businesses, reflecting China's emphasis on the development of the circular economy. Focusing on the automotive industry, Liu Meng said that materials such as waste car lights can be recycled and become raw materials for some 3C products. "The United Nations convention on plastic reduction is about to be issued, and Chinese companies need to plan ahead and deepen cooperation." She said.
In addition, facing the current wave of Chinese cars "going overseas", Liu Meng said that if Chinese car companies want to become international companies, they must not only have strong product strength, but also fully consider the cultural demands of different countries and internationally accepted values. She pointed out that women account for half of consumers, and Chinese auto companies must see the value and needs of women when "going overseas", which is an important aspect of improving soft power.
Explore new directions of open cooperation through multiple paths
While improving their own soft and hard power, the increasingly severe external environment cannot be ignored. The rise of trade protectionism has disturbed the global automotive supply chain, and the relevant policies of Europe, the United States and other countries and regions on China's new energy vehicles have brought great obstacles to China's new energy vehicle exports. Faced with this background, "open cooperation" has become a consensus in the industry.
In Wang Qing's view, we can start from the perspective of resource cooperation, especially from the perspective of cooperation in the construction of a global recycling system, strengthen global cooperation, and promote the transformation and development of the automobile market. First, we must deeply integrate into the global resource market system. Actively integrate into the global mature resource market system, enhance the influence in the marginal market by enhancing the linkage between futures and spot goods, strengthen and extend cooperation with upstream resource and mineral countries, and strengthen cooperation with Europe, the United States and other countries in energy recycling technology and standards. Second, improve the domestic recycling system. Improve the traceability and management system of the entire life cycle of production-circulation-recycling, form a trigger mechanism under the condition of price inversion, improve market planning and governance, improve recycling regulations and standards, expand application scenarios such as energy storage facilities and electric bicycles, and implant the development concepts of second-hand cars and cascade utilization products into the entire consumption cycle of consumers.
Regarding global cooperation in the field of new energy vehicles, Zhang Yongwei put forward five suggestions: First, continue to strengthen policy exchanges and in-depth coordination in the field of new energy vehicles around the world; second, strengthen global cooperation in weak links of the supply chain; third, promote the establishment of international standards that are globally recognized in the fields of testing and certification, charging, and carbon accounting; fourth, promote mutually beneficial cooperation around the key and difficult links of transformation such as commercial vehicles; fifth, carry out global exchanges and cooperation in emerging fields such as vehicle-network interaction and power battery recycling.
Zhao Yang pointed out that in order to build a healthy and sustainable new energy vehicle ecosystem, we must first consider the two dimensions of domestic ecology and international ecology to form an open and cooperative industrial ecosystem. Secondly, technological innovation is the key force to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry. We must increase R&D investment, and we must also raise legality and compliance to a strategic level, actively participate in or lead the formulation of international standards in the field of new energy vehicles, and ensure that domestic standards are in line with international standards. Third, the construction of the consumer demand ecosystem and the maintenance of the international interest balance ecosystem are the starting point and foothold of the new energy vehicle industry. While ensuring product quality, we must also focus on optimizing user experience. While winning the market, we must also consider the distribution of interests between various companies and countries. Fourth, strengthen policy support and business environment construction. The national level should further improve relevant laws and regulations, and local governments should also introduce specific support measures based on actual conditions.
"The EU hopes to have investment from China's automotive industry, but it also has many concerns about investment and has a contradictory mentality. It hopes that the Chinese automotive industry chain will go to Europe, but it does not want you to grow quickly; it hopes that you will increase employment and technology transfer for it, but it does not want you to become the dominant force in the local area." Sun Xiaohong believes that the EU's access mechanisms such as carbon reduction and data security have become the biggest hidden barriers to China's new energy vehicle compliance. However, he said that the global southern market, including the Middle East, North Africa, South Africa, and Latin America, may become the focus of China's automotive industry in the next step. In addition, for Chinese auto companies themselves, Sun Xiaohong believes that China's automobile internationalization has entered the 2.0 stage. To achieve the transformation from sales to services, from products to brands, and from trade to trade and investment, Chinese auto companies should develop layout around the core issue of brand upgrading.
Shu Xueming, assistant to the general manager of Chery International, also said that without a brand, an automobile company cannot survive in the world. Therefore, Chinese brands must first build brands when going overseas. Secondly, we must focus on the three major development tasks of overseas markets, namely, meeting local regulatory access, adaptability, and competitive development. In addition, there should be targeted product planning in overseas markets, including the construction of a globally differentiated overseas quality management system. "With the development of Chinese brands, whether it is national, national, or product confidence, we must gradually increase. At present, we have gradually improved our products and dared to set prices in overseas markets." Shu Xueming said.
In the view of Lu Fang, CEO of Lantu Auto, it is a general trend to build a global new energy vehicle cooperation ecosystem and promote the healthy and sustainable development of the automotive industry's economy, society, and environment. Lu Fang believes that the more open, the stronger, and the stronger, the more open, the Chinese auto industry is fully confident that it will grow and develop in the open. "Electrification, networking and intelligence have become the inevitable trend of the transformation and upgrading of the automobile industry. Although some countries and regions have introduced protective policies, this trend cannot be changed in the long run. We must seize the strategic window period, follow the trend and lead development." he said.
